Digital Twins by 2030. Most Will Be Useless.

Digital twins are the industry's favourite buzzword. Most of the implementations I've seen are expensive 3D models that cost £200K to build and get opened twice — once for the demo and once when the CEO visits. That's not a digital twin. That's a screensaver.

What a Digital Twin Should Be

A genuine digital twin isn't a visual model. It's a live, data-connected representation of how the building actually operates. It ingests real-time data from BMS, IoT sensors, maintenance systems, and occupancy tracking. It reflects current conditions, not design intent. When a chiller's performance degrades by 15%, the twin reflects it. When a floor's occupancy pattern changes, the twin adapts.

Why Most Fail

Three reasons:

• They're built from design data, not operational data — the twin reflects how the building was designed to work, not how it actually works. By year two, the design model and the real building have diverged so far that the twin is fiction.
• No data integration — the twin sits in its own software environment, disconnected from the BMS, CAFM, and energy systems that contain the actual operational data. It's a pretty island with no bridges.
• No operational use case — nobody defined what the twin would be used for. Without a specific use case (scenario planning, maintenance optimisation, energy modelling), the twin has no purpose and no users.

When Digital Twins Actually Work

The implementations that deliver value share three characteristics: they're connected to live building data, they serve a specific operational purpose, and someone is accountable for keeping them current. The best use cases are energy optimisation (modelling interventions before implementing them), maintenance planning (simulating equipment failure scenarios), and space planning (optimising layouts based on actual occupancy data).

Frequently Asked Questions

How much does a useful digital twin cost?

A live, data-connected twin for a large commercial building: £50-150K to build, £15-30K/year to maintain. Compare that to the £200-500K that visual-only twins cost — and deliver less.

Should I invest in a digital twin now or wait?

Wait unless you have a specific use case and the data infrastructure to support it. Investing in BMS integration and IoT sensors first gives you the data foundation that makes a future twin valuable.